{ "schema": "causari.survival_report.v1", "title": "Survival Report #5", "number": 5, "id": "2026/05", "date": "2026-10-12", "generated_at": "2026-10-12T13:11:26Z", "url": "https://causari.dev/reports/survival/2026/05/", "license": "CC-BY-4.0", "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "publisher": "Crovia Trust", "tool": { "name": "causari", "version": "0.4.1" }, "method": { "version": "v4", "url": "https://causari.dev/method", "command": "re audit --json", "blame_flags": [ "-w", "-M", "-C" ], "sample_floor": 5, "cap_rule": "a commit weighs at most the 95th percentile of per-commit introduced line counts in its repository, and never more than 10,000 lines", "evidence_class": "VERIFIED only; PROBABLE is listed but never summed", "aggregation": "repositories with at least sample_floor VERIFIED commits and a full (non-shallow) clone", "selection": "the repositories were selected, not drawn at random: 30 hand-picked and 34 found by GitHub commit search as public repositories with at least 5 commits carrying the same AI authorship metadata and at least 100 stars, most-starred first (discovered 2026-09-27); the selection rule and the counts behind it are public." }, "aggregate": { "repositories": 59, "total_commits": 921545, "ai_tagged_commits": 73083, "introduced": 34800950, "surviving": 18866088, "survival_rate": 0.5421141664236178, "survival_rate_interval_95": { "low": 0.38275285086787125, "high": 0.7531784355178591 }, "median_capped_survival_rate": 0.7561758472757145, "median_capped_survival_rate_interval_95": { "low": 0.6900213902771558, "high": 0.7641304362759026 }, "interval_method": { "kind": "bootstrap over repositories", "resamples": 2000, "seed": 5, "note": "95 % percentile interval from 2000 bootstrap resamples of the 59 aggregated repositories (with replacement, seed 5). It describes the sampled repositories, not all AI-assisted code, and not the repositories not in this sample." }, "baseline": { "repositories": 59, "repositories_with_gap": 58, "median_gap": 0.04910823686936766, "median_gap_interval_95": { "low": -0.008955229145522325, "high": 0.06685790817857018 }, "gaps_negative": 22, "gaps_positive": 36, "rewritten": [ "OpenHands/OpenHands" ], "rewritten_rule": "more than 50% of the repository's commits predate the oldest line still at HEAD", "pooled_by_age": [ { "from_days": 0, "to_days": 30, "tagged": { "commits": 16227, "introduced": 6937334, "surviving": 5278312, "survival_rate": 0.7608559714726147 }, "untagged": { "commits": 22021, "introduced": 12815911, "surviving": 10425956, "survival_rate": 0.8135165732658411 } }, { "from_days": 30, "to_days": 90, "tagged": { "commits": 13242, "introduced": 9542043, "surviving": 4182210, "survival_rate": 0.43829293160804245 }, "untagged": { "commits": 41149, "introduced": 28949280, "surviving": 15765949, "survival_rate": 0.5446059107514937 } }, { "from_days": 90, "to_days": 180, "tagged": { "commits": 15916, "introduced": 10133481, "surviving": 4430237, "survival_rate": 0.43718806992384945 }, "untagged": { "commits": 48624, "introduced": 46727672, "surviving": 38467601, "survival_rate": 0.8232295629878587 } }, { "from_days": 180, "to_days": 365, "tagged": { "commits": 14198, "introduced": 6084161, "surviving": 3597014, "survival_rate": 0.59120953571084 }, "untagged": { "commits": 93017, "introduced": 24082238, "surviving": 12475555, "survival_rate": 0.5180396855142781 } }, { "from_days": 365, "to_days": 730, "tagged": { "commits": 10408, "introduced": 2033857, "surviving": 1345196, "survival_rate": 0.6614014652947577 }, "untagged": { "commits": 132801, "introduced": 20846314, "surviving": 9882004, "survival_rate": 0.47404083043170125 } }, { "from_days": 730, "to_days": null, "tagged": { "commits": 3092, "introduced": 70074, "surviving": 33119, "survival_rate": 0.47262893512572424 }, "untagged": { "commits": 510740, "introduced": 83959165, "surviving": 19364715, "survival_rate": 0.2306444448321991 } } ], "pooled_by_age_note": "counts summed across the repositories with a baseline, one row per age window; one large repository can dominate a window, so no gap is computed from these rows: the gap is computed inside each repository and only its median crosses repositories", "definition": "gap = AI-tagged line-weighted survival minus untagged survival re-weighted to the age mix of the AI-tagged lines of the same repository, over age windows where both cohorts hold at least 5 commits, computed inside each repository; untagged = commits with no machine-readable AI signal (human-written, inline-completed and untagged-agent code alike); age = commit date to HEAD date. A negative gap means AI-tagged lines survive less than untagged lines in the matched age windows of the same repository." } }, "by_agent": { "ai": { "repositories": 2, "commits": 59, "introduced": 2878, "surviving": 2540, "survival_rate": 0.8825573314801946 }, "aider": { "repositories": 4, "commits": 11167, "introduced": 375563, "surviving": 235811, "survival_rate": 0.6278866661518839 }, "claude-code": { "repositories": 51, "commits": 24430, "introduced": 17208971, "surviving": 8760959, "survival_rate": 0.5090925541102952 }, "copilot": { "repositories": 4, "commits": 4037, "introduced": 253701, "surviving": 149235, "survival_rate": 0.5882318161930776 }, "cursor": { "repositories": 37, "commits": 1304, "introduced": 4364014, "surviving": 817581, "survival_rate": 0.18734609925632686 }, "devin": { "repositories": 14, "commits": 8850, "introduced": 3238756, "surviving": 2379154, "survival_rate": 0.7345888359604738 }, "gemini": { "repositories": 14, "commits": 1565, "introduced": 477198, 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"survival_rate": null } }, { "from_days": 365, "to_days": 730, "tagged": { "commits": 0, "introduced": 0, "surviving": 0, "survival_rate": null }, "untagged": { "commits": 0, "introduced": 0, "surviving": 0, "survival_rate": null } }, { "from_days": 730, "to_days": null, "tagged": { "commits": 0, "introduced": 0, "surviving": 0, "survival_rate": null }, "untagged": { "commits": 0, "introduced": 0, "surviving": 0, "survival_rate": null } } ], "age_matched": null, "oldest_surviving": { "date": "2024-07-11", "age_days": 158, "commits_before": 0, "introduced_before": 0, "tagged_commits_before": 0, "tagged_introduced_before": 0, "commits_before_share": 0.0 } }, "coverage": { "method": "v4", "blame_flags": [ "-w", "-M", "-C" ], "ignore_revs_file": false, "shallow": false, "sample_floor": 5, "small_sample": true }, "aggregated": false } ], "excluded": { "shallow": [], "not_method_v2": [], "failed": [ "fern-api/fern", "llvm/llvm-project", "richlander/dotnet-inspect" ], "duplicates": [], "opted_out": 0, "optout_file": "https://github.com/croviatrust/causari/blob/main/.github/survival-optout.txt" }, "reach": { "profile": "crovia.pnx.v1", "record": "crovia.pnx.reach.v1", "sheet": "reach.sheet.json", "run_id": "survival-report-gh-38253920473", "closed_at": "2026-10-12T17:48:52Z", "witness": { "id": "urn:causari:survival-report:witness", "key_hex": "8213f0683a1fa966dfa2b045e44a78683da5725cd307f71f9d19650e3b5760c6" }, "capture": "proxy-connect", "disclosure": "clear", "policy": { "kind": "allowlist", "mode": "enforce", "hash": "sha256:7a501cbe66356070f9c6c6a5372a8dd425be059bb2315a71bffcccff64692e21", "rules": 1, "file": "egress-policy.json", "source": "https://github.com/croviatrust/causari/blob/main/.github/egress-policy.json" }, "summary": { "destinations": 1, "connections": 128, "allowed": 1, "blocked": 0, "failed": 0 }, "destinations": [ { "host": "github.com", "port": 443, "outcome": "allowed", "connections": 128, "bytes_out": 521443, "bytes_in": 30788299161, "first_at": "2026-10-12T13:11:26Z", "last_at": "2026-10-12T16:16:24Z" } ], "verdict": "within-policy", "outside": [], "warnings": [], "logs": { "uploaded": 20, "shards": 20 }, "covers": "the connection attempts in the shard logs that were uploaded and concatenated into this sheet", "not_covered": "any shard that uploaded no log; what the runner does outside the measurement step (checking out this repository, installing the tool, uploading the shard); and any connection that did not go through the witness", "verify": [ "tacet-pnx verify reach.sheet.json --policy egress-policy.json", "re pnx verify reach.sheet.json --policy egress-policy.json" ] }, "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.23323312", "concept_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.22863965", "zenodo": { "record_url": "https://zenodo.org/records/23323312", "record_id": 23323312, "version": "#5", "sandbox": false, "published_at": "2026-10-12T17:53:27Z" } }